Your next lead.
Run the numbers.
If a lead costs $25 and 20% become customers, what could that mean after expenses? Make the assumptions yours and see the picture change.
Make the numbers yours.
Use the same time period for every input.
Use commission for insurance or revenue for service work, consistently. Include labor, materials, sales commissions, campaign management fees and allocated overhead where relevant. Taxes and costs you leave out are excluded.
Follow your numbers.
Every result responds to your assumptions.
Same assumptions at each volume. Other costs stay fixed.
2 expected customers
- Gross revenue / commission
- $1,100
- Expected refunds / chargebacks
- $0
- Lead acquisition cost
- $250
- Customer service costs
- $0
- Other costs
- $0
- Return on modeled costs
- 340.0%
- Break-even close rate
- 4.5%
Break-even is based on expected averages; actual customer counts are whole numbers.
What if your close rate changes?
Compare your assumption with five percentage points lower and higher, limited to 0–100%. All other inputs stay the same.
Estimated profit before tax · 1.5 expected customers
Estimated profit before tax · 2 expected customers
Estimated profit before tax · 2.5 expected customers
Bar length compares the size of each estimated profit or loss. Red indicates a loss.
How the estimate works
Expected customers = leads × close rate. Profit = revenue or commission after expected refunds − lead costs − costs to serve expected customers − other costs. Return divides profit by all modeled costs. Break-even is the close rate at which those costs are covered.
This is a planning example, not Lead Core performance data or a forecast. Actual results depend on lead quality, follow-up, your offer and expenses. Include all relevant costs before using the model to compare options.